Unelected, Unlikely, and Unbeatable? How Mark Carney Gave Canada’s Liberals a Fighting Chance Against Annihilation

Justin Trudeau left office unpopular, uninspiring, and unhelpful to the Liberal’s chances of retaining their slim control over the Canadian Parliament. In his wake, the sensible, popular, and useful Mark Carney has taken over – the new, albeit unelected, Canadian Prime Minister. As we come close to the inevitable cage match between Carney and his Conservative opponent, Pierre Poilievre, we are left wondering how the PM brought back the Liberal’s hopes for a potential win at the ballot box.

Before his arrival, Canada’s incumbents were expecting a total wipeout – a Conservative landslide was likely. However, in just a few short months, Poilievre has lost his traction. With Carney’s arrival bridging the polling gap (both parties around 40%, according to a CBC Poll), and anti-American, anti-populist sentiment rising in Canadian society, Carney was clearly the man for the moment. Poilievre, not so much.

Experienced in the world of finance, and a household Canadian name as former Governor of the Banks of England and Canada, Carney is the antithesis to Poilievre’s oftentimes sarcastic, brash, and populist approach. Working against Trudeau – a politician no longer able to excite the electorate – Poilievre’s adept speaking ability, and sharp criticisms of the Liberal establishment landed. Now, Poilievre has become a populist Icarus, who flew too close to the Trumpian sun.

Aligning himself with the President’s rhetoric – ‘America First’ against ‘Canada First’ – Poilievre had to distance himself from the unpopular Trump after threats to Canada’s sovereignty and the introduction of 25% tariffs. Continuing his campaign, the Conservative leader seems only to muster a weaker, distilled version of his previous slogan in recent pitches. “I will always work to put Canada first”, fails to have quite the same punch as “Make America Great Again”.

Given the shift in Canadian attitudes towards Trumpian rhetoric, the Liberals might have a chance at victory. This, if successful, represents a real win for the principles of western, liberal democracy these countries so desperately need at the moment. This is not to overstate the damage that could be done by Poilievre – he is a disrupter by Canadian standards, but pales in comparison to the likes of Trump or Argentina’s Libertarian, Javier Milei.

Carney, however, is exactly the technocratic, moderate, and serious figure to balance against Poilievre. The west needs a steadfast Canadian ally in its battalion against the existential threat of Russian aggression and the influence of business leaders such as Elon Musk. A rising sympathy for far-right politics is only combatted by demonstrating the centre-ground works for everyone.

If the Liberals pull this off, Carney joins the ranks of Keir Starmer, Friedrich Merz, and Emmanuel Macron, as the world’s most influential leaders still fighting for a rules-based international order, adhering to the principles of democracy. When Europe loses its strongest ally in the United States, it needs all the help it can get.

This, we have to remember, is only possible through sacrifice. Trudeau gave up his ambitions for a fourth victory knowing his presence weakened the party’s position. He, as opposed to the likes of Biden, recognised the need for the party to establish a fresh face and put up a unified front against Poilievre, even if he did so reluctantly. With resignations, unpopularity, and previous scandals, Trudeau at least had the grace and decorum to step down at an early time.

The same cannot be said for former President Joe Biden. His late exit from the race, after a disastrous debate against Trump was foolish at best and selfish at worst. His inability to see how the party needed both unity and a fresh face against Trump was disappointing. The Democrats knew they had made a mistake – look at Nancy Pelosi’s reaction to the whole debacle. She knew he had to go, but he overstayed his welcome.

Unviable as a contender but leaving his exit too late for a primary race, the Democrats had to rally around Kamala Harris. Despite their success in this, she did not fit the historical moment. Carney, on the other hand, does.

What can the Democrats learn from their northern neighbours? The Liberals have shown them the value of a leader. Republicans have been able to rally around Trump as the single unifier of Right-Wing politics in the United States. The Democrats have failed to offer a counterpart. Parliamentary democracies give us clear leaders of our political tribes – the left can rally around Carney, the right around Poilievre – in a way a presidential system cannot.

We have no idea who will be leading the Democrats into the 2028 election, let alone who is leading their efforts against Trump now. As Carney has demonstrated, leadership is vital if a party wants to capitalise on even a slim chance of success. The Democrats, if they dream of a 2028 comeback, need a unifying candidate on the national stage – and they needed them yesterday.