Chaos In, Incumbents Out: Taking the Temperature of 2025

When 2025 rolled around, and we started considering what went wrong in 2024, we may have decided to make an ‘ins and outs’ list for the new year. More exercise ‘in’, junk food ‘out’ - these things don’t tend to last long. I, however, have been thinking about what might have been on Justin Trudeau’s ins and outs, or Donald Trump’s. Surely for the former, Canada made its way to the ‘outs’ column. For Trump, it seems to have been ‘in’. What about the public itself? What made it on our political ‘ins and outs’? When a politician is on the backfoot, what does this look like? Given that 2025 has already seen a changing status quo in three countries, let's take a look at what our political ‘ins and outs’ list might look like going forward. 

Let’s get the obvious one out the way; Trump is ‘in’. The comeback of the century came as a surprise to many, and a foregone conclusion to some. With Trump in, the door of populism has been opened permanently. If 2016 was an apparition, and 2020 the antidote, 2024 demonstrated that populism is now here to stay. If this year will bring anything, it's more polarisation, more surprises, and more turbulence. For some, this is a good thing - the liberal establishment finally gets what it deserves. For others, this second Trump term is a step towards fascism in America. With his recent comments about Gaza, moves to cut the international aid budget, and promise of tariffs on allies, the US is becoming increasingly nationalistic and isolationist in its policy. For Americans, uncertainty both political and economic, is ‘in’. 

For their neighbours up north, the ‘out’ column was filled by a certain Justin Trudeau - and quite possibly the Liberal Party along with him. Trudeau’s exit has kept the ever-unpopular establishment as intact as possible as he facilitates his departure. By leaving as Liberal Party leader early, allowing a 77 day period to choose the next leader/Prime Minister - and keeping Parliament prorogued in this time - Trudeau is attempting to avoid the Joe Biden mistake of hanging onto his post for too long. Leaving early, giving time to the new candidates, and trying for a graceful exit seems to be the 3-pronged strategy. With Pierre Poilievre firmly in the Canadian ‘in’ column this year, will Trudeau’s strategy work? Unlikely. 

Politically calculated choices such as this are exactly the reason Canadians are getting tired of the ruling Liberal Party. Trudeau’s bid for a third term in 2021 was met with the same criticism, and for many Canadians those in positions of power have ignored their needs for too long. Poilievre, on the other hand, positions himself as sensible, straight-talking, and a far cry from the centrist, Trudeau model. A bit of a populist himself, Poilievre is taking advantage of an international move towards the kind of politics he’s good at - controversial, easy to digest, and entertaining. This last point is not a bad thing however; Poilievre is a brilliant public speaker and communicator, and is easily winning over the public as Trudeau fails to deliver the dynamism and energy he once inspired. With the former Bank of England boss Mark Carney as the favourite to take the Liberals into the next election, the change in leadership might give the Conservatives a tougher battle, but the efforts will most likely be in vain. In 2025, incumbents are ‘out’, and entertainment is ‘in’. 

Speaking of incumbents, the Germans are saying Auf Wiedersehen to Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Never reaching the stature of the much-loved Angela Merkel, and struggling to hold his coalition of SPDs, FDPs and The Greens, Scholz’s time is over. What lies in his wake, however, is more uncertainty. As in the US, Germany’s ins and outs list has kept chaos in the ‘in’ column, and the centrist establishment in the ‘out’. The CDU under Friedrich Merz has shifted to the right, but cooperation with the SPD, in a ‘grand coalition’ seems to be the only way to mitigate the chaos of the far-right ‘Alternative for Deutschland’. The presence of the AfD has complicated things and the German public are looking outside the ruling elite for solutions. With Merz as the next chancellor, he will have to contend with an impatience in the electorate, seen across the board in global politics this year. For the sake of centrists across Europe, in a time of increased right-wing support within countries like Austria, France, and the UK, one can only hope Merz holds together whatever coalition brings him to power. With Germany’s economic and political position in the EU, this election is critical domestically and abroad. 

Three incumbents, three countries. With populism on the rise and a weakening global, liberal order, these countries are struggling towards stability. As Prime Minister Harold Wilson said, a week is a long time in politics. With over 40 left this year, we can count on turbulence, chaos, and uncertainty being ‘in’ with every passing week. As is always the case in politics, there’s never a dull moment.